A Guide to Solar Power Forecasting using ARMA Models

In this short article, we summarize a step-by-step methodology to forecast power output from a photovoltaic solar generator using hourly auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models. We illustrate how to build an ARMA model, to use statistical tests to validate it, and construct hourly samples. The resulting model inherits nice properties for embedding it into more sophisticated operation and planning models, while at the same time showing relatively good accuracy. Additionally, it represents a good forecasting tool for sample generation for stochastic energy optimization models.