A Neural Network Model For Time Series Forecasting of U.P. East Rainfall

Indian summer monsoon rainfall has always been at the helm of meteorological interest. While there are many studies that focus on the All India Rainfall, a few focus on the precipitation at the regional level. In the present study we have used the statistical model of Artificial Neural Networks to investigate the autocorrelations in the time series of the UP-East rainfall and study the predictability of the same. Forecasts have been evaluated on statistical measures such as the correlation, Root Mean Square errors and the standard deviation. The results show that the model has been successful in predicting the said rainfall one year in advance. Development of the ANN model has been discussed.