Day Ahead Forecasting and Peak Load Management using Multivariate Auto Regression Technique

One of the most important commodity of today's world is energy. Energy utilization depends upon several factors such as variation in temperature, seasons, humidity, day of the week, special holidays etc. and the most efficient utilization of energy requires delivery of uninterrupted good quality power. Tariff plays a vital role here. Tariff can be used to create favorable electricity trading conditions in peak demand hours. Therefore, we must have a judicious and proper planning for daily load profile forecasting and in specific peak load demand forecasting. There are numerous methods of Load Forecasting and in specific peak load forecasting. In recent days, Auto Regression technique (ARIMAX) has proved itself a successful tool for future data prediction. In order to find the best application of ARIMAX to get optimum results in peak load forecasting and load management a case study has been done for an urban city in this paper.