Peer-to-peer and circular economy principles in the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) – new risks and opportunities

Exploring anticipated transformative changes must include a critical and holistic view. In the context of large-scale energy transitions, analytical approaches are often narrowly constrained around techno-economic, political and environmental aspects as drivers of change. Discussing renewable energy technologies in the context of an increasingly omnipresent peer-to-peer logic and the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) underscore the role of cultural change as a potential game changer. This paper focuses on the different modes and implications of peer-to-peer principles, as a means of organizing social interaction, assumed to have an increasingly important role in forthcoming energy transitions. In addition to these novel organisational principles, circular economy aspirations are gaining strength. Taken together, these socio-technical imaginaries can be interpreted as possibly converging building blocks for a desirable future society. Assuming a systems thinking view, this paper presents the key findings of foresight work. Such issues were discussed in a futures workshop organised in June 2018 in Finland, with the Millennium Project, a global futures think tank. The workshop explored the possible interactions of decentralised renewable energy, peer-to-peer and circular economy. The workshop results reflect new opportunities, risks, and the potential impacts of identified developments. The results indicate that synergetic advantages can be demonstrated, although a few notable caveats remain on the convergence of emerging peer-to-peer practices with circular economy. Furthermore, relevance to other geographic regions warrants urgent attention.