Compensating for Sensor Error in the Model Predictive Control of Circadian Clock Phase

The circadian oscillator regulates many critical biological functions; misalignment between the phase of this oscillator and the environment has been linked to adverse health outcomes. Thus, shifting the circadian phase of the oscillator to align with the environment using either light or small molecule pharmaceuticals as control inputs is desired. One challenge to controlling circadian phase is that the magnitude and direction of the phase shift caused by these inputs is dependent on the phase at which the input is delivered. Simulations show that model predictive control (MPC) can successfully shift the phase of the circadian clock using perfect knowledge of the current phase of the system. However, methods to assess circadian phase continuously in real time, as would be needed to implement MPC in vivo, are limited in their accuracy. Here, we explore the impact of imperfect sensing on our ability to control circadian phase. While some pathological patterns of sensor error can make control impossible, we show that by assuming errors in the phase sensor are bounded to be sufficiently small, we can bound the error of our MPC algorithm. We propose using the expected phase response curve to improve control when sensor error is present.