Semulation of Leishmaniasis Epidemiology in Libya Using Agent Based Modelling

Epidemics control is a continues struggle. In this paper is an attempt to model and then simulate an epidemiological disease known as Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL), which is currently affecting large communities in Libya. The model is developed to facilitate the Agent Based Models (ABM) as one of the many tools applied for epidemiological management. Validation of the model is considered by comparing the model's behavior with a trend of field data used by Libyan authorities. The methodology used for describing and designing CL model is derived from nature of the disease mechanisms. The ABM model involves three types of agents: Human, Rodent and Sand-fly. Each agent has its own properties. Additionally, global model parameters are used for following the human infection processes. Several experiments are given for illustrating the model performance, and monitor the number of people infected. Simulation results show that active human agents are more vulnerable to sand-fly bites, and infection rate is increasing or decreasing dependent on number of sand-fly vectors, number of host rodents, and human population awareness level.