A Case Study of Outbound-vehicle Analysis in Traffic System: Optimization to Simulation

This study presents an outbound-vehicle analysis in traffic system of Chiang Mai University as a case study. In the previous work, a network optimization technique is applied for maximum flow problem to find the optimal number of opened gates that appropriate for the current number of vehicles in the campus. Based on the results of previous work, simulation model was conducted in this study to introduce uncertainty factors in the system. The proposed simulation model was verified and validated to confirm the rightness and validity. Then, the uncertainty of vehicle velocity was introduced to the model in the 1^st scenario. The results obtained from the 1st scenario showed that the optimal solution from the previous work was not sufficient when the uncertainty was introduced. The 2^nd scenario was conducted to improve the system. Finally, the results obtained from the last scenario presented that changing directions after drivers perceived the traffic jam can help in improving the system, but the probability of changing the direction should be greater than or equal to 40%. Realtime traffic information systems may be considered to solve the traffic jam, if the solution is affected on changing driver's decision as 40% or greater than this value.