The Long-term Forecast Of Gilgit Baltistan(GB)’s Electricity Demand

The long-term forecasting of electricity demand at regional level has recently gained significance due to competitiveness of decentralized energy system. For sustainable development of any region, energy demand modeling plays a key role. This paper is based on LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning) to calculate the total demand of Gilgit-Balitistan for the base year 2016 to the end year 2040. Gilgit is an area of massive strategic and economic-importance, located in the northern most region of Pakistan, which connects with China through Khunjerab pass, India through Astore & Skardu districts and Afghanistan through Ghizer valley. It acts as the gateway for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. Gilgit-Baltistan is divided into two main divisions namely, Gilgit and Baltistan Division. The total demand of Gilgit-Baltistan is mainly composed of residential, industrial and commercial sub-sectors. End user approach is used in this paper for analysis of electricity demand. Overall, the forecasted electricity demand analysis of Gilgit-Baltistan will be able to provide sustainable alternatives for demand side management and supply policy selections at regional level.