Long-term Electricity Demand Scenarios for India: Implications of Energy Efficiency

Electricity demand projection is a crucial element in entire electricity supply chain mechanism. In this paper, India's sectoral electricity consumption scenarios till 2030 are developed. These scenarios incorporate different level of penetration of energy efficient appliances/equipment, electric vehicles, domestic rooftop solar PV and electric cooking devices which may influence electricity demand across various sectors. Three scenarios as a part of energy system model viz. business as usual (BAU), transition and aggressive are presented to analyse the impact of energy efficiency in sectoral electricity consumption. Energy efficiency factors, taken from India Energy Security Scenarios (IESS) of NITI Aayog are incorporated in BAU scenario to obtain electricity consumption in transition and aggressive scenarios. The modelling results indicate that energy efficiency will play a significant role in guiding electricity consumption pattern by 2030.