Energy and Environmental Implications of Green House Gas Mitigation Policies in the Transport Sector of Sri Lanka

This study analyzes the greenhouse gas mitigation policy options for the transport sector in Sri Lanka. It was carried out through the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/Enduse), which is a bottom up type least cost optimization framework. A business as usual scenario and four alternative mitigation policy options were considered in this study. These policy options include two scenarios with 100 $/tonCO₂, 500 $/tonCO₂ carbon tax, a subsidy scenario with tax rebates for electric, hybrid vehicles and a scenario which promotes pubic transport. The results show that the transport sector energy consumption is expected to increase from 5 Mtoe in 2015 to 19.5 Mtoe in 2045. The CO₂ emissions are expected to increase from 15 Mton in 2015 to 58 Mton in 2045. Out of the four scenarios, promoting public transport was most effective as it could reduce energy consumption by 52% and reduce CO₂ emissions by almost 36% in 2045. At current electricity prices and other costs, electric vehicles are not found to be economical in the analysis.