Determinants of Automated Teller Machine Loading Demand Requirements in Sri Lankan Cash Supply Chains

Physical cash is a regular exchange medium and the most liquid asset, which is accepted all around the globe. It is vital to study on cash logistics in developing countries with the continuous expansion of commercial bank branches and Automated Teller Machine (ATM) network [8]. Cash supply chain is a valuable product flowing supply chain with specific features. The Central bank Statistics of Sri Lanka (2017), indicates exponential growth in ATM transaction value from 2013 to 2017 and 8.58% increment of ATM terminals in 2017 compared to 2016. In Sri Lanka, few types of research have been carried out in the banking sector. Through those researches, ATM cash logistics operations are not examined well. In the present study, the ATM is considered as a goods storage warehouse. To fulfill this gap and answer the main question of what is the most suitable forecasting technique to predict ATM cash demand in Sri Lanka, this research has been conducted. The process began with a thorough literature survey and direct interviews with bank managers to collect data related to the determinants that are affecting the cash withdrawal fluctuations in Sri Lanka. With the shortlisted factors, based on the survey conducted among ATM operating staff, the customer survey questionnaire is designed. Location of the ATM, income status of the user, day of the week, salary day, being a rainy day and being a holiday are the examined determinants of the customer survey. The entire research is conducted on customer perspective. Out of Regression and time series analysis techniques, time series analysis technique is recognized as the best method to develop a forecasting model for a selected ATM.