Prediction of Product Degradation in Outside Environment Based on Cumulative Damage Degradation Model

In order to solve the reliability estimate problem based on degradation prediction in outside environment, a degradation prediction framework based on environmental spectrum and cumulative damage degradation model is proposed. Aiming at the varying outside environment, this work started from analyzing different characteristics of the environment / load and three kinds of environmental spectrums are proposed, namely polyline spectrum, time domain spectrum and distribution spectrum. Then, an annual variation model of temperature is established as an example of time domain spectrum. Meanwhile, degradation effect of time domain spectrum is studied through cumulative damage degradation model. At last, a case study is conducted by the data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Reliability estimate contract shows that the prediction method works well.