Multi-Area Unit Commitment Model Based on Multi-Scenarios Risk Analysis

A large number of studies have shown that the prediction accuracy of wind power is relatively low. Large-scale wind power integration into the power grid brings more uncertainty to the operation of the power system. On the one hand, the interconnection of power grid reduces the influence of wind power uncertainty on the operation of the power grid, but also increases the complexity of the day-ahead unit commitment. In order to obtain a practical and feasible unit commitment scheme in a limited computing time, it is necessary to screen typical scenarios to measure the operation risk of the power grid. On the basis of constructing the scene set of wind power, load prediction error and forced shutdown of the unit and the tie line, the risk consequences of various scenarios are quantified by the expected wind power curtailed (EWPC) and the expected energy not supplied (EENS) which are introduced into the objective function as the risk penalty. A safety constraint unit commitment model of multi-area power grid is established which have considered the multi-scenario running risks. A two-area 12-bus system is used to verify the correctness and validity of the established model.