Combinatorial Method for Aggregation of Incomplete Group Judgments

A method for aggregation of expert estimates in small groups is proposed. The method is based on combinatorial approach to decomposition of pair-wise comparison matrices and to processing of expert data. It also uses the basic principles of AHP/ANP approaches, such as building of criteria hierarchy to decompose and describe the problem, and evaluation of objects by means of pair-wise comparisons. It allows to define priorities based on group incomplete pair-wise comparisons and to organize feedback with experts to achieve sufficient agreement of their estimates. Double entropy inter-rater index is suggested for usage as agreement measure. Every expert is given an opportunity to use the scale, in which the degree of detail most adequately reflects this expert's competence in the issue under consideration, for every single pair comparison. The method takes all aspects of individual expert competence into consideration. The method is meant for use in weakly-structured subject domains in the process of strategic planning.