Investment Risk Analysis of Electricity Generation from Vinasse Biodigestion in the Free Contracting Environment

This paper presents a methodology for investment risk analysis of the electricity generation from the biogas energy utilization from the biodigestion of vinasse produced in sugarcane agroindustries. The methodology uses econometric models, together with the Monte Carlo method for the generation of synthetic series of random variables: i) ethanol production, which will be used to estimate vinasse generated in the process and ii) Price Settlement of Differences. The economic viability analysis is based on the evaluation of the probability distribution of the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR and the Discounted Payback, considering the commercialization of electric power in the Free Contracting Environment. The case study is carried out for a sugarcane plant located in the Midwest area of Brazil. The preliminary results point to the economic feasibility of implementing the project, bringing important information to assist the investor in the decision-making process.