Probabilistic Low-Voltage State Estimation Using Analog-Search Techniques

Power systems are becoming more complex and the need for increased awareness at the lower voltage levels of the distribution grid requires new tools that provide a reliable and accurate estimation of the system state. This paper describes an innovative state estimation method for low voltage (LV) grids that analyses similarities between a real-time snapshot comprising only a subset of smart meters with real-time communications and fully observed system states present in historical data. Real-time estimates of voltage magnitudes are obtained by smoothing the most similar past snapshots with a data-driven methodology that does not relies on full knowledge of the grid topology and electrical characteristics. Moreover, the output of the LV state estimator is a conditional probability distribution obtained with kernel density estimation. The results show highly accurate estimation of voltage magnitude, even in a scenario characterized by a strong integration of photovoltaic (PV) microgeneration.