Accounting for Spatial and Temporal Variability in Electric Power Model Point-Source Emissions

Air emissions from power plants can have a significant effect on air quality. However, models used to analyze and project trends in the energy system are not easily coupled with air quality simulation models. Most downscaling approaches use simplistic averaging and “growth in place” methods that do not account for future changes in the pattern of generation due to renewable penetration, nor for important variations in time and space in emissions that have important implications for air quality. For instance, emissions of NOx are strongly correlated with temperature, which is also correlated with conditions favorable for ozone (smog) episodes. This paper presents a new methodology for downscaling electric sector results from the USDOE National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) for input into air quality modeling systems. The downscaling methodology will be used to analyze air quality and resulting health impacts of energy sector transitions, including transportation electrification and increased use of natural gas and renewable sources.