Reliability Evaluation for Microgrids Using Cross-Entropy Monte Carlo Simulation

This paper proposes a new method to evaluate reliability indices for load served within a grid-connected microgrid. It is based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and the cross-entropy method; considers time-dependent generating resources, load, and energy storage; and calculates the probability, frequency, and cost of loss of load events. Grid-connected microgrids are typically very reliable systems, and thus sequential MCS methods can face slow convergence times. The cross-entropy method, which is used here to distort transition rates for the distribution system and generators, greatly speeds convergence without sacrificing the primary advantages of sequential simulation. Validation is run against sequential MCS for several microgrid configurations. The new algorithm reproduces indices to within 6% and reduces run-times by factors of 5-19.