Modelling transmission line failures due to lightning using reanalysis data and a Bayesian updating scheme

The main task of this paper is to present a method for calculating time-varying probabilities of failure due to lightning for overhead transmission lines using reanalysis data and a Bayesian updating scheme. This work extends what has previously been done by the same authors in a similar framework for wind related failures. The availability of finely meshed hourly reanalysis time series for various meteorological weather parameters allows the construction of individual fragility curves for each transmission line. Using historical failure data together with a Bayesian updating scheme, it is possible to construct historical hourly time series for the probability of transmission line failure. These time series form the basis of a Monte Carlo simulation that enables the capturing of the significant increase in probability of the occurrence of two or more simultaneous failures associated with severe weather.