Exploring the impact of renewables on supply-demand balance: a probabilistic model

This paper aims at proposing a probabilistic methodology for exploring the impact on supply-demand balance of integration of a growing part of renewables (wind, solar) in an energy mix initially composed of conventional (nuclear, thermal, hydro) power generation technologies. We propose a stochastic optimization approach consisting in maximizing the probability to satisfy the supply-demand balance, modelled as a system of bilateral random inequalities. Preliminary results obtained with this approach are reported and discussed in the simple case where neither storage systems nor optimized management of ftexibilities are considered. The impact of setting up annual quotas for CO2 emissions in this context is also analyzed.