Enhancement of probabilistic attack graphs for accurate cyber security monitoring

Timely and adequate response on the computer security incidents depends on the accurate monitoring of the security situation. The paper investigates the task of refinement of the attack models in the form of attack graphs. It considers some challenges of attack graph generation and possible solutions, including: inaccuracies in specifying the pre- and postconditions of attack actions, processing of cycles in graphs to apply the Bayesian methods for attack graph analysis, mapping of incidents on attack graph nodes, and automatic countermeasure selection for the nodes under the risk. The software prototype that implements suggested solutions is briefly specified. The influence of the modifications on the security monitoring is shown on a case study, and the results of experiments are described.