Investigation into high voltage network reliability predictive calculation

According to IEEE standards, power network reliability can be described with several reliability indices. Major ones are System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) and System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI). These parameters are calculated as a statistic metric, so a long period of time is needed in order to obtain an adequate estimate. In this study we propose a way to evaluate them by simulation of possible accident cases. Since network lines, commutation ports, and loads properties are known, the average disconnection time can be calculated. The specific fault rates for cable and overhead lines are available from the statistical analysis as well and are assumed to be independent of the network topology. Overall repair operations sequence is simulated, with interruption time stored for every customer in a power network. All disconnection times are used to derive SAIFI/SAIDI indices.