Does RMB exchange rate volatility affect Beijing's inbound tourism development?

Exchange rate volatility is an important influencing factor for inbound tourism development. Based on seasonal adjustment and trend decomposition on the monthly volume of Beijing's inbound tourist flows, this paper empirically investigates the impact of RMB real effective exchange rate volatility on Beijing's inbound tourism development using cointegration test and Granger causality test. The results indicate that the appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate has not changed the long-term growth trend of Beijing's inbound tourism development before the end of 2011. However, the negative effect of the appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate on Beijing's inbound tourism development has become to appear from the end of 2011. RMB exchange rate volatility can be considered the Granger cause of Beijing's inbound tourism development, and RMB exchange rate volatility has a lag effect on Beijing's inbound tourism development.