Study and validation of power generation predicting based on degradation rate of PV module in 25 years

During the feasibility study stage, it is very important to efficiently and accurately estimate the energy production of photovoltaic (PV) power station, which will directly affect the revenue forecast of the project. At present, there are several ways to estimate the power generation, but most of them are very complex and time consuming. In this paper we propose a new forecasting method based on the power degradation rate of PV module is proposed. In this method, the power generation for the first year is first calculated and then the generation for the next 24 years is estimated based on the amount of the first year. During the calculation, the DC/AC line loss, matching loss of PV string and other influence factors is regarded as a constant. The method investigated in this study may be a promising and feasible way for the yield prediction, and to a certain extent, this method can improve the precision and reduce the complexing of generation forecast.