A system dynamic model of a distributed generation for energy security in Niamey

Economic development is based on a reliable and cost effective energy supply. To sustain their economic growth, emerging countries need a dependable Distributed Generation (DG). DG is an efficient way to reach energy security by minimizing power losses in long and aging transmission lines. Due to the inherent complexity of electricity systems, this paper proposes to use a System Dynamics (SD) modelling approach to investigate the links between electricity supply and demand, population growth, and real climatic parameters in Niamey, Niger. Some of the variables utilized in this study were the local solar radiation and wind speed. Results proved that: (1) the current population will double in the horizon 2036 under the actual birth and death rates; (2) the highest summer electricity demand in the year 2015 was 217 MW; (3) electricity supply can be far higher than demand by implementing a 50 MW Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in conjunction with a 10 MW Energy Storage System (ESS); and (4) through a sensitive analysis, Niamey and neighboring vicinity would reach energy independence from 2017 to 2055, and even beyond.