Lumen maintenance prediction for LEDs — New insights

Commercial claims for LED-based products in terms of lumen maintenance are fully based on TM-21 extrapolations using LM-80 data. We presented an approach based on statistical data analytics, following the work from Yu & Tseng, at EuroSimE2015. Since then, more LM80 test data came available both for High Power (HP) and Mid Power (MP) LEDs. In this paper, we will present the results of further investigations, where we have taken the work from Meeker into account. This is needed as some commercial claims are based on 10 years of warranty and some service bids provide periods of 20 to 25 years of operation.