Step-by-step evaluation of photovoltaic module performance related to outdoor parameters: evaluation of the uncertainty

Knowing the uncertainty in the PV production forecast is crucial in the optimization of smart-grid operations and in its stability. In this paper, we present uncertainty calculation in the PV energy production forecast process, calculated step by step. From horizontal irradiance and ambient temperature, all the steps needed to evaluate the PV production are studied with a special focus on the comparison between calculation and measurements. The uncertainty is evaluated by computing the relative mean bias error and the relative mean absolute error.