Mathematical-based accurate prediction model of output AC power for grid-connected photovoltaic system

Accurate prediction of the power produced by the photovoltaic system (PV) is an important area of study. For grid-connected PV system, forecasting the power injected into the grid can significantly improve the power system reliability by optimal economic dispatch and enhanced operation and planning tasks. As irradiance and temperature change with time, the power extracted from the PV also changes. Efficient prediction tool is thus necessary to predict the output power at any change in temperature and irradiance values. This paper presents an accurate mathematical model for the power injected into the grid based on the temperature and irradiance variations. The main idea is to build a mathematical model that relates the output power with the irradiance and temperature. The model is built based on simulations of a grid-connected PV system incorporated with the Incremental Conductance (INC) MPPT algorithm. The simulations are carried out according to varying irradiance and temperature values while monitoring and recording the corresponding output power. Using EUREQA software, a mathematical model relating the output power as a function of irradiance and temperature values has been built. The results from the proposed model are compared with the simulated results. The maximum recorded error is less than 0.183 %.