Sequential Monte Carlo Reliability Prediction Method of Low Voltage Distribution Network Based on Failure Effect Analysis

In order to predict the reliability of low voltage distribution network, an improved algorithm based on the traditional sequential Monte Carlo method is proposed. In this method, the basic data and operation data of low voltage power network are used to calculation parameters of each branch's and equipment's failure rate, outage time and failure effects. By combining sequential Monte Carlo method, the reliability of low voltage distribution network is predicted. This paper also put forward the measures to improve the power supply reliability of low voltage distribution network, including replacing the old line equipment, adding the sectional switch and installing the contact switch. The results show that the method proposed in this paper can be applied to the reliability prediction of low voltage distribution network.