Relating alpha diversity of gastropods in predicting climate change

Climate change is a phenomenon which affects community structure of a particular marine ecosystem. A 4-year annual monitoring of Alpha (α) diversity of intertidal gastropods in Asry Beach, Kingdom of Bahrain is used as a predictor of climate change in this particular study. Specifically, to list and classify taxonomically the intertidal gastropods; determine the annual a-diversity and species richness using Shannon [H] and Margalefs (d) diversity indices; find out significant differences in the calculated a-diversity; relate the calculated α-diversity in predicting climate change based on atmospheric temperature as secondary data and monitor substrate temperature in the study area. Taxonomic listing and identification of gastropods show 16 families, 25 genera and 22 species. Alpha diversity and species richness vary annually using Shannon [H] and Margalef's (d) diversity indices. Results depicted higher H value (1.271) in 2015–2015 and lowest (1.183) in 2013–2014 while higher (d) values (7.652) 2013–2014 and 2015–2016. However, there is no significant difference at p= 0.5 in the calculated indices using ANOVA. The stability of the community structure is determined by evenness and distribution of its taxonomic components in relation to all other species. Correlation analysis (r=0.669) showed that atmospheric temperature exert an effect on the abundance of species and their distribution in that particular area. However, species richness may not be affected by the changes in atmospheric temperature (r=0.214). Alpha diversity of gastropods may be used to predict climate change with the continuous increase in atmospheric temperature. The mean variations in both annual atmospheric temperature (28.7°C–29.8°C) and substrate temperature of 31°C–33.3°C maintain a stable community structure composed of the taxonomic groups of intertidal gastropods. However, it is yet difficult to accurately estimate and predict how climate change exerts an effect on biodiversity both in spatial and temporal scales.