Ground temperature measurement to aid predictive models in comprehensive assessment of coastal erosion-related risks to infrastructure in permafrost areas

Alaska's coastal communities are facing increased coastal hazards. Accurate predictive models are necessary to anticipate how various hazards may affect communities over time. Currently, erosion projections do not take into account the non-linear increase in erosion due to warming near-shore water, air, and permafrost. University of Alaska, Anchorage (UAA) is developing an arctic-capable coastal geomorphic change model, “arctic Xbeach”, based on the open-source Xbeach model. The arctic Xbeach model accounts for the thermal and mechanical processes contributing to coastal erosion including the role of permafrost, as well as other factors such as water and air temperatures, wind, length of open water periods, and spatial extent of open water. Baseline data are very important to establish assumptions and parameters for model development, as well as for reality checking and calibration of the models. There is, however, a lack of publicly available baseline data. Sustainable Futures is working with UAA to establish a collaborative data collection and monitoring network throughout Coastal Western Alaska. The purpose of this effort is to collaboratively provide data necessary for development of predictive models and to monitor changing conditions over time so communities and their technical specialists have the information needed to support informed, community-engaged planning. Initial phases of the network will focus on soil and ground temperature, elevation, and shoreline profile data. Thawing of permafrost impacts infrastructure and results in increased coastal and riverbank erosion and storm surge flooding due to loss of soil strength and subsidence of thaw unstable soils. The instrumentation and data collection techniques will conform to industry standards to ensure the collected data is consistent, reliable, and reproducible. Local partnerships and community member participation is critical for both data collection and community planning efforts. The baseline data collected now will enable arctic Xbeach and other predictive models to greatly aid coastal communities in making critical decisions with respect to planning for their futures in the face of a warming climate.