A simple model for a SARS epidemic

In this paper, we examine the use of an ordinary differential equation in modelling the SARS outbreak in Singapore. The model provides an excellent example of using mathematics in a real life situation. The mathematical concepts involved are accessible to students with A level Mathematics backgrounds. Data for the SARS epidemic in Singapore are used for a detailed study. Beginning with a simple logistic model, we discuss how it may be analysed, refined and improved. The exercise serves to provide insight into the processes involved in deterministic modelling using a realistic and relevant example.