Long term planning model value of stochastic solution and expected value of perfect information calculations with uncertain wind parameters

The objective of this work is to investigate wind uncertainty within a long term generation and transmission expansion planning framework. Specifically, this work investigates uncertainty associated with wind power within a 2 stage stochastic program and quantifies its importance with the well known quantities “Value of Stochastic Solution” VSS and “Expected Value of Perfect Information” EVPI. Simulations are run on a six bus test system and uncertainties considered include wind power capacity factor, wind power capacity credit, wind power overnight build costs, and demand/peak demand. While demand/peak demand is not an uncertain quantity associated with wind it is insightful to compare the effects of wind power uncertainties to wind power uncertainties plus demand/peak demand uncertainties since load growth is a parameter more traditionally studied in uncertainty analysis and more directly affects most investment and operational decisions. Simulation results are subjected to stability analysis and show reasonably good stability for scenario reductions of up to 70%.