Decision-support technique on risk assessment detailed for local climate and distinct productions

The paper is devoted to the problem on analytics tools to support expert decisions concerning economic estimations of both damages and benefits caused by climate changes. Mainly, the problem is connected with the conflict-of-units on how to coordinate reasonably methods and models originated from engineering, climate and economics, and then how to formalize analytics within some new unified scale. We restrict our research by temperature dynamics only and develop a decision-support technique on risk assessment in application to peculiarities of local climate dynamics and technological processes. With this purpose we propose a synthesis of two methods: the bifurcation analysis specialized in local climate dynamics (so-called QHS-analysis based on quasi-homogeneous sections) and the risk assessment specialized in technological hazards (so-called RDC-assessment based on a relative damage coefficient). The QHS-analysis provides more accurate processing the nonlinear time series of meteorological temperature observations (not simulations) at the expense of the guaranteed homogeneity of the samplings used in statistic estimations. The RDC-assessment provides the adapted analysis of temperature effects for various productions at the expense of unification of the scales used to describe climatic, technological and economic notions. As a result, the developed technique gives a chance to formalize estimations of both different scenarios of local temperature dynamics and the corresponding economical tendencies oriented to distinct productions. We believe that the results could be promising for practical applications connected with adaptation of industry and business to coming inevitable local climate changes.