Safety and risk prediction of Baltic Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure impacted by climate-weather change process

The paper is concerned with an application of the simplified impact model of critical infrastructure safety related to climate-weather change process to safety and risk prediction for Baltic Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure operating at the variable climate-weather conditions. There are presented the identified oil terminal safety parameters and the climate-weather change process parameters and characteristics. Moreover, there are presented evaluated by experts the coefficients of the climate-weather impact on the oil terminal assets intensities of ageing. Further, there are determined the three-state critical infrastructure safety function, the expected values and standard deviations of the lifetimes in the safety state subsets and in the particular safety states, the risk function, the fragility curve and other safety and resilience indicators for the Baltic Oil Terminal Critical Infrastructure.