Energy Demand Model for Residential Sector: A First Principles Approach

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the residential sector accounts for one-third of the country's energy consumption. This number is steadily increasing, posing a challenge to energy regulators as well as suppliers. To manage the growing demand for energy, there is a need for energy system optimization, especially on the demand side. This paper uses a first principles approach to build a high-resolution energy demand model, which can be used as a test bed by academicians as well as policy makers for performing such optimizations. This framework generates activity-based, building-level, time-dependent demand profiles. The model associates appliance usage with each household activity and calculates energy consumption based on the appliance energy rating, the duration of the energy consuming activity, and the type of activity performed by each household member. It also accounts for shared activities among household members to avoid double counting. Additionally, passive energy consumptions such as space heating/cooling, lighting, etc., are measured. Finally, validation of the results obtained by this model against real-world data for Virginia is carried out. The results indicate that the modeling framework is robust and can be extended to other parts of the U.S. and beyond.