A deterioration hazard model using a continuous index

In this study, the authors develop a deterioration prediction model with respect to deterioration management indicators by using continuous variables. Quite a few deterioration management indicators of infrastructure are observed as continuous values. It is possible to discretize these continuous values and predict deterioration with a Markov chain model, but in order to obtain more precise deterioration prediction results, it is desirable to develop a direct model of the time variation in continuous values. In this study, the authors formulate a continuous deterioration hazard model including characteristic variables that vary according to the structural characteristics and environmental conditions of infrastructure. Furthermore, the authors attempt to empirically analyze the applicability of the methodology proposed in this study.