Monte Carlo simulation for prediction of worsening conditions of type-2 diabetes patients at peri-urban zones of lima city

From a sample of 1K type-2 diabetes cases, using Monte Carlo simulation and real data, we have estimated that a 2.5% might be potential candidates in being in the highest levels of progress of type-2 diabetes as manifested in nephropathy or necrosis, In addition, a 1 % of the sample might be highly sensitive to cardiovascular attack. The pattern of the sample is characterized by having low incomes per month, poor education to improve lifestyle, as well as the lack of contact with health specialist, among others. The results of this simulation might serve to reconfigure ongoing schemes of public health aiming to reduce diabetes complications and extend minimally the lifetime of those type-2 diabetes patients belonging to vulnerable groups.

I. Introduction

The rapid growth of number of diagnosticians of type-2 diabetes at urban and Peri-urban cities of developing countries is nowadays considered priority in their modern frameworks of programs of public health by which one expects that new medical methodologies to be applied are capable to tackle the expansion of this disease in the short term [1]. For instance in Latin American countries like Peru, reports have indicated that diagnosticians of type-2 diabetes in Lima city are massively given in young people population around the thirties which means that this human group might reduce drastically their quality of life in long term [2]–[4]. Clearly the reduction of the life expectancy of diabetes patients involves serious social and economic consequences, and novel designs of diabetes treatment are required to be urgently applied in a coherent manner between the health policy and the stability of diabetes patient. This paper has paid attention on diabetic patients of human groups featured by having lowest incomes and minimal interaction with medical specialists.