Global sensitivity of parabolic equation radar wave propagation simulation to sea state and atmospheric refractivity structure

Inadequate representation of the environment is a limitation for prediction of radar system performance as well as for validation of propagation codes. To improve understanding of how different environmental effects/parameters compete and compare, this study examines the sensitivity of radar wave propagation to a suite of environmental parameters for low grazing angle near-surface radar systems at 3–15 GHz at horizontal and vertical polarizations. A global sensitivity analysis method is used, which accounts for parameter interactions, and propagation is modeled using the parabolic equation method. Environmental parameters examined include eight sea state parameters and eight parameters characterizing the vertical structure and character of range-independent refractivity profiles. The relative importance of parameters varies more with frequency than polarization, and parameter interactions are found to be significant. Atmospheric mixed layer parameters are found to be the most sensitive, particularly the thickness of the mixed layer. The most significant ocean surface parameter is swell period, although sea directionality is important at 3 GHz and sea surface roughness and salinity are important at 9 and 15 GHz. Because of the spatial variability of sensitivity throughout the domain, regional analysis is performed to determine the most important parameters in different regions of the domain (1000 m in altitude and 60 km in range). These regional sensitivity results, along with those for the whole domain, provide guidance on prioritization of environmental characterization in numerical weather prediction and inversion studies (e.g., refractivity from clutter studies), which are two common methods currently used to address environmental effects on propagation.