On predicting social unrest using social media

We study the possibility of predicting a social protest (planned, or unplanned) based on social media messaging. We consider the process called mobilization, described in the literature as the precursor of participation. Mobilization includes four stages: being sympathetic to the cause, being aware of the movement, motivation to take part and ability to participate. We suggest that expressions of mobilization in communications of individuals may be used to predict the approaching protest. We have utilized several Natural Language Processing techniques to create a methodology to identify mobilization in social media communication. Results of experimentation with Twitter data collected before and during the 2015 Baltimore events and the information on actual protests taken from news media show a correlation over time between volume of Twitter communications related to mobilization and occurrences of protest at certain geographical locations. We conclude with discussion of possible theoretical explanations and practical applications of these results.