Maximizing MWh: A statistical analysis of the performance of utility-scale photovoltaic projects in the United States

Despite significant cost declines utility-scale solar projects have to perform well over their lifetime in order to return profits in a low-PPA environment of under $50/MWh. Using multivariate regression analysis this paper examines the 2014 Net Capacity Factors for 128 utility-scale projects that came online before the end of 2013 and explores the impact (in decreasing order of importance) of global horizontal irradiance, tracking technology, inverter loading ratios and project vintage plus three other interactive variables on performance. The model complies with the assumptions of OLS regressions and explains 93% of the observed NCF variation.