Modeling and application of power grid dispatching operation risk consequences

Dispatching operation in modern power grid has the complexity and uncertainty, which makes the traditional dispatching mode based on experience of dispatchers face severe test. In this paper, risk consequences calculation is introduced to large-scale power grid dispatching operation. For the various operation steps in dispatching order, the concepts of operation state and operation developing state are put forward, and corresponding calculation model is established. In terms of assessment indices, an index system including heavy-load, power limit exceeding of control section, voltage violation and loss of load is used to describe power grid dispatching operation risk. On this basis, normalization and commensurability are applied to evaluate the risk consequences of each operation step and of the whole dispatching order. Finally, the proposed model is used to assess operation risk of Guangdong Power Grid. The results show that the proposed model is suitable for real large-scale power grid. During risk assessment, high-risk operation steps of the dispatching order can be found out, which provides an efficient identification method to discover potential risk from formulating dispatching order at the beginning of power grid dispatching. It is showed that this proposed model can lay an important theoretical foundation for the dispatching operation risk assessment system in the future. And the research results in this paper have already been applied in the Guangdong Power Grid.