Unit Commitment Under Gas-Supply Uncertainty and Gas-Price Variability

We propose a two-stage mixed-integer linear stochastic optimization model to analyze the scheduling of electricity-production units under natural gas-supply uncertainty due to pipeline congestion and natural gas-price variability. The first stage of this stochastic optimization model represents the day-ahead scheduling (i .e., unit commitment) stage, while the second stage represents actual real-time operations through a number of scenarios. We use this model to analyze the effect on unit commitment and dispatch of two types of natural gas-supply conditions. First, we analyze a case involving low-cost natural gas supply with natural gas-transmission issues related to potential gas-pipeline congestion. We then examine a case involving higher-cost natural gas, which is used solely to attain feasibility with fast-ramping events. The first case mimics situations in the ISO New England system, in which relatively low-cost natural gas supply is uncertain in cold-weather conditions due to natural gas-transmission bottlenecks. The second case is reminiscent of situations in the California ISO system, in which relatively expensive but flexible natural gas-fired units need to be used to handle rapid changes in net demand in the early mornings and late afternoons.