Evaluation of the flexibility approach in construction of Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast 2015 by ENTSO-E

The paper objective is the review and proposal for enhancement of the system flexibility-related calculations in the recent release of Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast 2015 by ENTSO-E. The document presents generation adequacy assessments and introduces residual load and RES ramping analyses as new elements in flexibility calculations. This research focuses on the evaluation of the ENTSO-E report in two major aspects: The first aim of this paper is to re-create forecast report for the Polish power system based on ENTSO-E SO&AF 2015 guidelines. Second, the study indicates imperfections in the new approach presented in the SO&AF 2015. Hence, the additional objective of the paper is to suggest improvements to the released report both in terms of calculations itself and presentation of the results. Finally, the authors compare the outcome of both methods and formulate conclusions.