Concept of evaluating chances and risks of grid autarky

The energy transition in Germany stimulates regions and municipalities to set renewable energy share or CO2-emission reduction targets. This paper presents a conceptual approach to evaluate the chances and risks of high degrees of grid autarky which arises as a result of these targets. This concept is achieved by combining energy system modelling and socio-economic analysis, which focuses on factors of grid autarky and their synergies. In terms of the energy system analysis, emphasis is given to the integration of power flow constraints and grid extension algorithms within an optimization model. Within this paper first results of a pre-analysis of the regions are presented, which gives an insight into factors that influence the local energy transition. It was identified that support schemes, besides providing financial incentives, serve as a good basis in developing the self-supplying regions by facilitating knowledge and experience exchange. The current renewable self-supply rate and the potential of self-supply on district level enable a clustering of the regions for the system modelling.