An assessment of the potential of solar photovoltaic (PV) application in South Africa

The world benefits greatly from fossil fuel resources with more than 80% of world's energy demand coming from fossil fuels. Proven coal reserves are sufficient for the next 113 years, while natural gas reserve could last up to 55 years. However, given the finite life of these resources and the need to reduce emissions alternative energy resources such as solar, biomass, hydro and wind are suggested as they are clean, abundant and effectively infinite. Solar PV is best known as a method for generating electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons. This study was aimed at investigating and establishing the potential of solar PV energy application across South Africa.in different provinces. Moreover, it aimed at assessing the impact of PV efficiency and degradation over number of years. An `Optioneering' approach was used to determine the potential of solar. It is a structured evaluation of the options in support of decision-making. The options (in this case the provinces) were modelled in 3 scenarios with different weights assigned to different key parameters. The Northern Cape Province has the highest solar PV potential for scenarios 1 and 2, followed by the Eastern Cape and Kwazulu Natal Provinces. Nevertheless, Gauteng Province was found to have the highest solar PV potential for scenario 3. The attributes/parameters and their weighting are therefore significant in deciding the location where solar PV plants are to be established. The PV module efficiency is critical in quantifying the potential power output over a certain period of time. The PV efficiency has shown a tendency of declining over time. It has been established that PV degradation occurs at a faster rate than anticipated. This would have dire consequences for the solar PV investment in South Africa.