Scenario planning in the aerospace business environment - the VIBES approach

Air transport has a considerable impact on tourism, trade and other aspects of society, and the industry that constructs and maintains aircraft is a major employer and wealth generator. Many nations have made substantial investments aimed at developing and retaining world-class aerospace design and manufacturing capabilities; if these resources are to be deployed to best effect, the aerospace industry needs a means of understanding, describing and analysing the future business environment, in order to formulate strategies that minimise risks. To address this need, the VIVACE (Value Improvement through a Virtual Aeronautical Collaborative Enterprise) programme, funded under the European Union's 6th Framework scheme, includes a work package that addresses business case modelling for the extended enterprise. The partnership for this task includes the University of Nottingham, Rolls-Royce and Volvo Aero Corporation. Based upon research conducted within the partnership, and taking into account supplier and customer needs at various stages in the supply network and the after-market sector, this paper presents a methodology to support and promote strategic thinking in the aerospace business environment, from a broad range of perspectives.