Industry-wide technology roadmapping in double unknown — The case of the semiconductor industry

Many companies face today a dilemma of “double unknown” when deciding where to put their research dollars: ignorance of which one among many possible technologies is most likely to emerge and similar ignorance of which one among many possible applications will most likely be a driver for the technology. Generic technologies are widely recognized to be beneficial for various market applications ([Bresnahan, Trajtenberg, 1995]; [Maine, Garsney, 2006]) and recent research results show that double unknown can lead companies to organize design activity to develop generic technologies suitable for several emerging markets application [Kokshagina, et al. 2012a]. However, the investigations so far focused on the level of the individual firm, while a “double unknown” situation is typically characterizing an industrial sector as a whole. This is in particular the case of the semiconductor industry: While the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) primary focus has been and still is the continuation of Moore's law, it introduced recently the “More than Moore” concept, to account for technologies which do not necessarily follow the CMOS miniaturization trends, and represent a growing part of the total silicon-based semiconductor market. The sheer diversity of both those technologies and their potential applications renders a roadmapping exercise very challenging. Nevertheless, given the benefits that roadmapping has brought to the semiconductor industry, the International Roadmap Committee (IRC) of the ITRS has decided to extend its activities to this new field. Which strategies do the ITRS experts implement to select which technologies to roadmap and which applications to target in double unknown? In this paper, we show that to design roadmaps for More than Moore technologies, the ITRS experts apply a strategy of “common unknown” [Kokshagina, et al. 2012a], along with additional community building activities specific to the situation of inter-firm collaboration.