Time series intervention analysis for preventive/predictive maintenance management of multiunit systems

A primary concern of maintenance management is the failure pattern exhibited by increasing failure rate systems. In the extant literature, a common assumption about the component behavior is that after replacement the new components work "as good as new". In this study, we relax this assumption and employ an intervention analysis based on time series formulation to study the failure behavior of the system under preventive/predictive maintenance policies. We build on the Box/Tiao's intervention model for our analysis of the preventive/predictive maintenance policies for complex systems. Simulation techniques are employed to perform model verification.