Predicting system-failure risk from unanticipated fiber-breaks in manufacturing

A method is proposed to extract useful information from product that fails in manufacturing due to an unpredictable and unknown source of damage. The method requires that the failure mechanism of damaged product be well understood. Estimated parameters include fraction of damaged product, and probability of a product failure in useful (system) life. It is used to predict the risk of an optical-fiber break during the 25-year life of an undersea telecommunication network, from data on unanticipated fiber breaks that occurred during its manufacturing. The method is a way of predicting risk of product failure in high reliability applications where risk of failure is dictated, not by design deficiencies, but by occasional manufacturing defects introduced by accidents or unknown sources.